Risk Management

Understanding and mitigating protocol risks

Overview

Every investment carries risk. Manifest's approach to risk management focuses on transparency, mitigation strategies, and clear communication about potential challenges. Understanding these risks helps users make informed decisions about their participation in the protocol.

Market Risks

Home Price Volatility

While U.S. residential real estate has appreciated over long time horizons, short-term volatility exists. Regional downturns, economic recessions, interest rate changes, or changes in monetary policy can affect home values.

Manifest's design aims to faithfully represent HPA in the price of $USH. Users for whom this exposure is undesirable are not well-suited to hold $USH.

Operational Risks

HEI Origination Quality

The protocol currently relies on a single origination partner to source and underwrite HEIs, with plans to expand to multiple partners. Partner underwriting quality directly affects portfolio performance.

Safeguards in place:

  • Strict underwriting guidelines and buy-box parameters

  • Right to reject non-conforming HEIs

  • Right to regular audits of partner operations

  • Active expansion to additional origination partners

Liquidity Management

The core challenge: HEIs average 4.5-year periods until they settle while tokens can be sold instantly. Extreme redemption pressure could force suboptimal asset sales.

Comprehensive approach:

  • Duration matching: $sUSH staking incentives create time-locked positions

  • High IOL targets: Incentivizing investor-owned liquidity ensures deep markets

  • Institutional relationships: Established buyers exist for HEI portfolios if asset liquidation is needed

  • Securitization access: Ability to sell HEIs into institutional markets

  • POL buffer: Protocol-owned liquidity provides immediate redemption capacity

Valuation Accuracy

The protocol depends on accurate daily valuations of the HEI portfolio to set NAV.

Quality controls:

  • Conservative valuation methodologies and assumptions

  • Transparent calculation methods

  • Third-party home valuation estimates from bank-grade automated valuation models

Smart Contract Risks

Technical Vulnerabilities

Like all DeFi protocols, smart contract bugs could potentially affect operations or user funds.

Security measures:

  • Professional audits before deployment

  • Gradual rollout with increasing TVL limits

  • Emergency pause functionality

Regulatory Evolution

The regulatory landscape for tokenized real assets continues evolving. New regulations could affect protocol operations or token tradability.

Compliance approach:

  • Proactive engagement with counsel

  • Structure designed for regulatory flexibility

  • Conservative interpretation of existing rules

Tax Law Changes

Changes to tax treatment of HEIs, token transactions, or international structures could affect returns.

Structural advantages:

  • Ongoing tax advisory relationships

  • Established precedents in each jurisdiction

  • Ability to adapt structure as needed

Concentration Risks

Geographic Concentration

Initial operations focus on 14 states where our origination partner operates. Regional economic issues could disproportionately affect the portfolio.

Expansion plans:

  • Targeting all 50 states over time

  • Adding origination partners in new regions

  • Monitoring regional exposure limits

  • Prioritizing geographic diversity in acquisitions

Counterparty Dependencies

The protocol depends on several key counterparties:

  • HEI origination partner (expanding to multiple)

  • Banking and custody providers

  • Legal and tax advisors

  • Technical service providers (Villcaso Corporation)

Mitigation strategies:

  • Clear service agreements with termination rights

  • Documented processes for provider transitions

  • Regular performance monitoring

  • Expansion to multiple providers where feasible

Protocol-Specific Risks

Governance Risks

$USA holders can influence protocol direction through governance votes. Poor governance decisions could harm protocol value.

Governance safeguards:

  • Limited initial governance scope

  • Professional directors provide oversight

  • All governance votes give permission, not direction to the professional management of Manifest

Yield Sustainability

Staking yields depend on the gap between HEI returns and NAV growth. This gap could narrow if home appreciation accelerates or HEI returns compress.

Sustainability factors:

  • Structural advantages of HEIs remain constant

  • Governance can adjust reward distribution

  • Natural supply/demand balance for staking

Risk Monitoring

Real-Time Dashboards

The protocol maintains transparent monitoring of:

  • Portfolio geographic distribution

  • Liquidity depth and utilization

  • Staking ratios

User Considerations

Investment Suitability

$USH suits users who:

  • Seek real asset exposure

  • Understand real estate market cycles

  • Can tolerate moderate price volatility

  • Have appropriate risk capacity

Risk Management Tools

Users can manage their own risk through:

  • Diversification across multiple assets

  • Staking for additional yield cushion

  • Providing liquidity for additional rewards

  • Monitoring NAV versus market price

Emergency Procedures

Protocol Response Plans

For various risk scenarios:

  • Liquidity Crisis: Activate emergency redemption mechanisms, potentially sell HEI portfolios

  • Smart Contract Exploit: Pause affected functions, coordinate recovery efforts

  • Regulatory Action: Adjust operations to comply, potentially limit certain jurisdictions

  • Market Crash: Continue normal operations, communicate transparently about NAV impacts

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